Volatility of essential food prices and regional inflation in Indonesia: empirical evidence from South Sulawesi

Andi Amran Asriadi; Nailah Husain; Andi Rahayu Anwar

doi:10.65881/integration.v1i2.67

Authors

Andi Amran Asriadi Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia Author
Nailah Husain Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia Author
Andi Rahayu Anwar Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.65881/integration.v1i2.67

Keywords:

food price trends, inflation, fluctuation, volatile food, agricultural commodities

Abstract

Purpose: to analyze the effect of staple food prices (shallot, garlic, red and green chili peppers, beef, and chicken) on inflation in South Sulawesi

Method: this study employs a quantitative approach using secondary monthly time series data from 2021 to 2025 in South Sulawesi. Multiple linear regression analysis is applied to examine the impact of staple food prices on inflation, supported by classical assumption tests and hypothesis testing using t-test and F-test.

Findings: staple food prices jointly have a significant effect on inflation in South Sulawesi. However, only green chili pepper and beef prices have a positive and significant impact on inflation, while shallot, garlic, red chili peppers, and chicken prices do not show a significant effect.

Implications: inflation-control policies in South Sulawesi should prioritize stabilizing the prices of green chili peppers and beef, as these are the most influential commodities. The study also highlights the importance of focusing on volatile food commodities in regional inflation management strategies.

Originality: lies in its simultaneous analysis of multiple staple food commodities (shallot, garlic, red and green chili peppers, beef, and chicken) at the regional level of South Sulawesi.